Future Economy Council
September 17, 2009
Discussion Group Topics
“There is a force for change that’s basically invisible using old ways of seeing. It’s a force we have to let collide with and even destroy our old ideas about how the world should be before we can hope to make any sense at all” Age of the Unthinkable, Ramo
The FEC is a group that is working to develop transformational leaders (master capacity builders) in Catawba County able to understand and utilize the skills of building capacities for transformation.
Objectives:
1) To develop new ways of thinking about the futureBelow you will find information presented at our August 19th meeting by Taylor Dellinger, WPCOG and Scott Millar, EDC. Please discuss that data with your group through the eyes of a Master Capacity Builder, keeping the objectives above in mind. The last bullet is a quote from the Age of the Unthinkable, please also discussion this quote and be ready to present to the group. -
2) To be able to identify trends and weak signals
3) To be able to ask appropriate questions
4) To be able to listen for value and find new connections
5) To be able to connect diverse ideas and people for continuous innovation
6) To understand how to create "innovation networks"
7) To design and evolve parallel processes
8) To be able to identify and utilize new and emerging patterns
9) To be able to think systemically at a higher level of complexity
10) To be able take appropriate individual and team risks to develop new ideas and methods
Opening Statement Audio Link by Terry Bledsoe with Danny Hearn
Group 4 - Audio Link (4:55)
• Birth rate is generally flat.…The moment you hand power over to other people, you get an explosion of curiosity, innovation and effort. When you spread power instead of hoarding it, you discover benefits that you couldn’t have imagined in advance, and that sometimes run contrary to what you might have expected.
• Quality of life is a big driver in any community.
• Still ranked last in educational attainment. Is that a factor of our schools, a young
population that is not returning here after college, lack of attracting business
requiring higher skills, what influences this factor? Will the fact that Apple is coming
here change this? If we continue to attract businesses like Apple will the
educational attainment level rise to match it? Is there a willingness and passion to
learn factor in our culture? Some feel that the reason educational attainment is so
low is that we are failing to retain our areas best and brightest.
• Part of the comment above was prompted by the fact that the Hickory MSA 18-44
population has only grown by 45 since 2000 while the 45 + population has grown
by 18,589.
• Scott Millar was quick to point out that there was a huge disparity between the
persons sitting in the room and the average worker in Catawba County.
***Relevant Input - (Nathan) - Discussion centered around the younger demographic and how these group members ended up here. (Andrea) - Discussion of a 4 year major University. (Karen) - Flat Birth rate in some segments, but not in others. If a person has a lot of education, they tend to leave. Those that don't have education tend to stay. The lack of opportunity for those with more educational attainment is having a negative impact on those without educational attainment.
Group 2 - Audio Link
• In general, manufacturing jobs are making up a smaller percentage of the workforce
and services is making up a larger percentage since 1990. We still have a larger
manufacturing base than most of the country.
• Poverty rates are increasing, up 32%. Average weekly wage $662.
• Foreclosures have tripled since 2000.
• What did Apple like about the area?
o Our manufacturing attitude
o Culture of a hardworking workforce
o Quality of life
o Large track of land devoted to data centers, power, water, fiber.
o Could hire people from the area
• Scott Millar was quick to point out that there was a huge disparity between the
persons sitting in the room and the average worker in Catawba County.
…The revolution under way around us isn’t something we can choose to be a part of or not. It is largely unavoidable. Today there’s no choice. We’re participants, like it or not. It’s not as if we can wake up some morning and decide, “Okay, today’s the day I’ll start mashing up my life.”
Your life is already being mashed for you. The Internet, your derivative-laced retirement account, chemical compounds that sit in our food or our clothing, all of these are expressions of an unstoppable, infectious genius for combinations. The new tools we’ll need come from accepting that mashup energy changes the ecosystems around us and, as a result, changes us.
The nature of these networks is often not apparent until, awkwardly, they shift and fracture the world we thought we understood. It’s also been called a “risk society.”
***Relevant Input - (Dr. B) Talked about the need for an education base - particularly k-12. Talked about population outflow of people with valuable skills. (Taylor) addressed the American Community Survey and its importance. The ACS last year showed that 4 year degrees dropped, while the population increased. That is a red flag that says skilled labor is looking elsewhere. In 2000 we were 12th (in the state) in 4 year degrees, now we are 14th. (Dr. B) Do people choose to leave or have to leave?
(Steve Ivester) - Discussions at L-R have stated that computer students are out of here unless there is some sort of internships. (Group Discussion) about surveys and information to assess the situation.
Group 3 - Audio Link
• Diversification is a key to moving forward but it should be noted that in 1999,…Many of our problems today aren’t the result of too little information. Instead, they come from the challenge of sorting through a huge, and growing amount of data, all constantly changing, and much of it irrelevant or misleading.
Catawba County was thought to be a model for diversity. Could our success in the
1990s been the real cause of our decline? We were diversified and at full
employment in the 90’s and could not attract new business here because we did not
have the resource of a workforce to offer. Did that limit our ability to grow and
transition to modern industry from old school manufacturing (furniture and
textiles).
• From The Age of the UnThinkable : “ The world is not being paved over by a
smooth, universalized system. And that very ability to evolve systems that fit the
needs of different peoples and cultures and to encourage real diversity in thinking
will help us solve many of the problems we face.”
• Scott Millar was quick to point out that there was a huge disparity between the
persons sitting in the room and the average worker in Catawba County.
***Relevant Input - (Steve Ivester) - The Monoculture of Furniture, Textiles, and Cabling.... Manufacturing... The Culture that one doesn't need to finish high school. Skilled workers aren't expecting their children to get an education... No fertile ground for entrepreneurship in the Monoculture. Education has to be part of the recruiting process. Educational programs need to be consistent with area needs. Charlotte Brand vs. Upper Catawba Brand (Peers vs Competitors). Take advantage of our manufacturing strength.... Apple and Target are opportunities. Import Substitution.
Group 5 - Audio Link
• It has been stated that our proximity to Charlotte helps our economy. Is that true…The fact is we can’t know if what didn’t work yesterday will work today; we can’t
or are they actually hurting us?
• Hickory has lost its identity. We use to be known for furniture but no longer. How
do we market ourselves?
• There are a lot of vacant buildings in the area. What do we do with them? Does the
existing manufacturing buildings help the EDC or have they become a limiting
factor in our ability to grow? For economic development, is it better to have the
older manufacturing facilities or a clean piece of property? It was also mentioned
that just because a building is ugly, doesn’t mean it is empty. Many older buildings
are being used for storage.
• Scott Millar was quick to point out that there was a huge disparity between the
persons sitting in the room and the average worker in Catawba County.
predict the impact of our attempts to make change, and that is why we have to
keep trying. It’s tempting to feel that the forces at work now are so big that there is
no point in action at all. But in fact, the opposite is true. Even small changes can have
an impact on our future, and this is why we all must get involved.
***Relevant Input - (Dan) We need to be a lot more regional. How do we connect to work as a region or a group? If you are the best, they will find you. Need to be known as an open and connected region. We need to be using Ken's web conferencing and web sites. We need to be using Applachian partnerships conference rooms. (Ken) We tend to revert back to comfort and that works against us. Technology can open us up and help us compare with Charlotte. Creates a global economy.
Rick Smyre Comments - Audio Link - Critical Thinking is being redefined as we speak. Historically used to be Rational Thinking where you analyze information that already exists. New critical; thinking involves "How can you make connection between totally disparate ideas?" "Distributive Intelligence" - better build connections and understand the new culture. If you build these models and concepts of trying your young people and it's not what they see as important to their culture, then you are just spinning your wheels... You're looking to build an Economic Immune System.
Group 1 - Audio Link
• Since 2000 , the Hickory MSA has lost 35,000 jobs.Scott Millar was quick to point out that there was a huge disparity between the persons sitting in the room and the average worker in Catawba County.
• Since 2000, Catawba County has lost 18,000 jobs.
• Current unemployment rate: 15.4% (New figure since meeting 14.6%)
• Wilmington has an employment change of 17.4% since 2000 as opposed to our
-18.8%. What are they doing differently?
…”I would warn against attempts to forecast novel technologies by the existence of building blocks already in place”, the economist Brian Arthur has written. In an era of new math, simply guessing at the shape of a combination of existing blocks tells you almost nothing about what might be built. The great thing about our future, and the terrifying thing, is that we can’t imagine what sums the new math will yield. This sense of so many possible combinations, of a limited dimensionality, presents us with a staggering level of complexity. Opportunities for spectacular innovation explode around us.
***Relevant Input - (Dr. Everson) - Strategies. Instead of moaning about the ones that have moved away, we have an opportunity to figure out a way to keep the college alumni here. We talked about Micro-Lending. We can target Appalachian and L-R students, who have stayed here, and give them small amounts of money and get out of their way. We need to let them go forth and do what they think is important. (Thom) - We hear about wanting to turn this into an entrepreneurial area and we have to build a bridge to that. It's not going to happen overnight.... having a Science Festival would be a tangible process. We have to have some tangibility or people will lose faith in us. This can help foster the entrepreneurial spirit and change our culture. People may want to then participate in our Renaissance.
